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Dissertation real options

Dissertation real options

Nathee Athigakunagorn, Purdue University Abstract Highway agencies have a fiduciary responsibility for cost-effective upkeep of highway assets worth trillions of dollars. A critical aspect of this stewardship is the ability to make informed decisions regarding the scheduling of interventions geared to enhance infrastructure capacity and structural integrity or to maintain a state of good repair.

projects, that is, those real options (flexibility) that are integral parts of the This dissertation proposes a two-stage options identification and. Real Option Valuation vs. DCF Valuation., An application to a North Sea oilfield. Spring Master's Thesis in Financial Economics. Written by Charlie. Real options for staggered development valuation. necessary over the course of this dissertation and an interested reader is referred to. Gibbons [76]. Bulan, L.T. () Firm Investment Behaviour in a Real Options Framework. Abstract of doctoral dissertation in Anderson, R.I. () Doctoral Dissertations. Real options analysis as a decision tool in oil field developments. SM thesis, MIT, Engineering Systems Division. edu-essay.top

Development of such schedules which are time-based or condition-based, often proceeds with the implicit assumption that a certain asset-related parameter of volatility will continue to dissertation real options a certain pattern on the basis of observed past trends.

However, given the uncertain nature of the asset environment, it is often the case that the economic attractiveness of an investment determined at the analysis year may not be the dissertation real options over time. In some cases, it is possible to scale back, defer, or expand the investment at a future time in order to avoid excessive losses or to capture additional rewards; in other cases, it is not easy to scale back, defer, or expand.

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As stewards of taxpayer money, highway agencies place great value on any flexibility they may be granted to exercise these options. Unfortunately, the traditional economic evaluation methods provide a means for capturing the value of such flexibility in decision-making. This dissertation addresses this issue by proposing a methodology to value the flexibility associated with their intervention scheduling using Real Options Analysis ROA.

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ROA borrows the valuation method from finance literature and has been applied in a few contexts of transportation management. ROA for project evaluation makes it possible to determine a value of the https://edu-essay.top/11c/3586-ujian-essay-peradi.php to defer, abandon, or proceed with the investment, and more importantly, to use such valuation in the evaluation and decision process.

The recommended decision is one that maximizes the project value not only in terms of the project outcomes but also in terms of the inherent flexibility available.

The next step determines the project cost components for both the agency costs and user costs and establishes the discount rates and analysis period. The possible pathways for the parameter of volatility are established using a binomial lattice, and the final project value corresponding to each pathway is determined.

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The developed option establishes optimal intervention timing and scheduling, that is both time- and performance-based, thereby reaping the dissertation real merits of both broad approaches. To demonstrate the application of the methodology, this dissertation presents four illustrative case studies: highway shoulder widening, travel lane expansion, optimal maintenance threshold determination, and optimal time for paving unpaved roads.

The findings from the case studies confirm the advantages of using ROA over the traditional method and corroborate the efficacy of ROA as an effective method of economic evaluation that appropriately captures the value of flexibility.

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